Special Coverage: IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings, Bangkok

Asian Value Investor Editorial Team with wire agency inputs. For information only. Not investment advice. Disclaimer

18,000registered participants, per IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva ¹

191member countries represented

35 yrssince Thailand last hosted, in 1991

~20%of world oil normally moves through the Strait of Hormuz, now closed by Iran

$400bnexternal debt payments facing developing countries in 2026

$105.72Brent per barrel, Oct. 9 morning, vs $65.58 a year earlier

The stories

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Anthropic cofounder Jack Clark at the Per Jacobsson Foundation Lecture in Bangkok, Thailand. — Photo Credit to IMF

Policy · 20 October 2026

Humanity Has Less Than a Decade to Regulate A.I., Anthropic Cofounder Says

Speaking to the world's finance officials in Bangkok, Jack Clark said A.I. is already doing original science. Two economists asked who will pay for it, and who will work beside it.

Kenan Machado

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Kevin Warsh stands at a podium bearing the presidential seal, looking off to the side, with American flags on the left and a man in a dark suit blurred in the background. — Photo Credit to The White House

Policy · 17 October 2026

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Didn't Want to Comment on Rate Hikes. Almost.

Over 33 minutes in Bangkok, the Federal Reserve's new chairman declined, more than once, to say what he will do at the next two meetings. He was less shy about the world he will be doing it in.

Kenan Machado

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A man in a dark suit and blue patterned tie speaks at a podium with two microphones, in front of American flags and blue curtains. — Photo Credit to The Federal Reserve

Policy · 16 October 2026

Kevin Warsh, 148 Days In, Treats A.I. as a Shock Before It Is a Gain

In Bangkok, the Federal Reserve chairman told the I.M.F.'s Kristalina Georgieva where he thinks he has fallen short, why the A.I. boom pushes up demand before it adds supply, and why he won't say what the Fed does next.

Asian Value Investor Editorial Team

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Panelists on stage at the 2026 IIF Annual Membership Meeting in Bangkok, with Helen Qiao shown on the large screen. — Photo: Asian Value Investor

Macro · 15 October 2026

AI Investment Fails to Cushion China's Housing Slump

Four economists specializing in the Chinese economy broadly agreed on what ails the world's second-largest economy. They split, though, on what it will take to fix the problem.

Asian Value Investor Editorial Team

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Hyun Song Shin delivers closing remarks at a podium during the 2024 Annual Meetings in Washington — Photo Credit to IMF Photo/Jonathan Ernst

Rates & FX · 15 October 2026

Bank of Korea Chief Says Rates Stay Tight Until Inflation Heads Back to 2%

Governor Hyun Song Shin says an AI export boom and the Middle East war are pushing prices up together, and that currency and financial-stability goals now point the same way.

Kenan Machado

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Governor Michelle W. Bowman at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, January 2024 — Photo Credit to The Federal Reserve

Banks · 14 October 2026

Bowman Says Fed Supervisors Feared Acting Before SVB Collapsed

The Fed's top bank regulator says examiners watched Silicon Valley Bank deteriorate for a year before the 2023 collapse, and that no one inside the central bank had the authority to make the call.

Kenan Machado

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A young child looks into the camera, standing on bare, littered ground — Photo by Billy CM for Pixabay

Macro · 13 October 2026

Rising Prices Are Hitting the Poorest the Most

Global growth is expected to slow this year even as prices are expected to rise. In the median low-income developing country, households at the bottom of the income scale spend about 80 percent of what they consume on food, energy and housing costs.

Kenan Machado

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Reporters raise their hands to ask questions at an IMF press briefing on the Global Financial Stability Report — Photo Credit to IMF

Markets · 13 October 2026

IMF Warns Calm Markets Hide Rising Risks From AI, Bonds and Cyberattacks

The fund's latest stability report finds high leverage, thin buffers and little room for governments to cushion a fall.

Kenan Machado

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A pedestrian walks past an IMF signboard for the Spring Meetings 2026 in Washington DC — Photo Credit to IMF

Macro · 13 October 2026

Iran War Hurt the World Economy Less Than Feared: IMF

The International Monetary Fund held its medium-term outlook steady in July but raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.7 percent. The fall in price growth that began in early 2024, it said, has stalled.

Kenan Machado

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A delegate with a conference badge walks past a blue IMF banner reading Welcome to the 2026 Spring Meetings — Photo Credit to IMF

Macro · 12 October 2026

IMF and World Bank open Bangkok meetings with war, oil and debt on the table

Finance chiefs gather outside Washington for the first time in three years as the Iran war enters its eighth month.

Asian Value Investor Editorial Team with wire agency inputs

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IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a table with a microphone, gesturing with one hand, in front of an IMF-branded blue backdrop — Photo Credit to IMF

Policy · 12 October 2026

Georgieva warns AI is a 'slow-moving tsunami' for jobs and tax bases

The IMF chief's first appearance of the week focused on young workers and shrinking government revenue.

Asian Value Investor Editorial Team with wire agency inputs

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Kristalina Georgieva, in a green jacket, and a man in a blue suit wear white Thailand-branded boxing gloves at a Thailand-themed display while others look on — Photo Credit to IMF

Macro · 12 October 2026

Thailand uses its turn as host to pitch for investment

The finance minister wants 3% growth within three years. The country has averaged about 2.3% over the past five.

Asian Value Investor Editorial Team with wire agency inputs

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Sidebars

Sidebar · Roll call

Who's in Bangkok, and who isn't

InKevin Warsh, Fed chairman. Fireside chat with Georgieva, Fri 10:30. InTharman Shanmugaratnam, Singapore president, World Bank Jobs Council co-chair. InGuy Parmelin, Swiss president. First Swiss presidential official visit to Thailand in 22 years, per Thai Examiner. InShin Hyun-song, Bank of Korea governor, attending G20 and IMF-WBG meetings (Yonhap). InCarlos Carvallo Spalding, Paraguay central bank president, chairman of the 2026 meetings. OutScott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary. Deputy Secretary Francis Brooke and Under Secretary Erin Browne lead for Treasury, per Thai Examiner.

Sidebar · World Bank

Banga's bet on 'small AI'

Banga used Monday's "Small AI: More and Better Jobs" session to argue that simple tools on basic phones can raise productivity in poorer countries without large language models. His example: nurses at Indonesian primary-care centers using phone apps to assess symptoms and reach remote doctors.

He named five job-creating sectors: infrastructure, agriculture, primary healthcare, tourism and value-added manufacturing. About 1.2 billion young people turn 18 over the next 15 years. "The private sector generates between 75 and 85 per cent of jobs in any country," he said.

Source: News Agency of Nigeria via PM News; TRT World

Sidebar · Security & weather

Police on alert, pumps on standby

17 X-ray checkpoints and 19 walk-through gates at the convention center; about 500 Tourist Police on duty.
A police memo dated Oct. 10 warned of possible mass protests and listed six roads that could be restricted. No closures had been ordered; police said they had identified no specific attack plot.
Floods since mid-September affected more than 3.5 million people nationwide by Oct. 5, with 31 deaths (AP, cited by Thai Examiner). Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul ordered a review of four flood scenarios on Oct. 5, including cancellation.
Oct. 13 is a public holiday; Oct. 16 is a special government and bank holiday.

Source: Thai Examiner, Oct. 12

Sidebar · Outside the hall

Debt campaigners and Thai grassroots groups push back

Iolanda Fresnillo of debt-justice network Eurodad told Reuters that "countries are already cutting their expenditures because their debt payments are going high," and said of the IMF's review of loan conditions: "We fear that this review of conditionality policy is just going to make things worse."

The Assembly of the Poor, a Thai grassroots network, said it would mobilize during the meetings. Its advocate Baramee Chairat argued in a Common Dreams column that the institutions' model of development has "left the poor behind."

Sources: Reuters; Common Dreams, Oct. 6

Sidebar · Regulators

FSB flags bonds, private credit, AI

Financial Stability Board Chair Andrew Bailey's letter to G20 finance chiefs, dated Monday ahead of their Oct. 15 Bangkok meeting, urged vigilance on sovereign bond volatility, private credit and AI. "The pace of change in the financial system continues to accelerate," he wrote. The FSB also sent a note on global stablecoin arrangements.

Source: FSB, Oct. 12

Graphics desk

All bars drawn to scale from the cited figures

AI chips lift East Asia's outlook

World Bank 2026 GDP growth forecasts, June vs. October update, %

June 2026October 2026

Vietnam

6.3

7.4

Indonesia

4.7

5.2

Malaysia

4.4

5.1

EAP region

4.2

4.5

China

4.2

4.4

Philippines

3.7

Thailand

June figure not stated in source

2.0

Scale 0–8%. Source: World Bank East Asia & Pacific Economic Update (Oct. 6, 2026), as reported by ICIS. The bank warned AI-related goods made up more than 70% of export growth in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

The IMF's last word before Tuesday

IMF July 2026 WEO Update, real GDP growth, %

20262027

World

3.0

3.4

2.3

2.2

China

4.6

4.1

Euro area

0.9

1.2

EM & dev.

3.8

4.5

Scale 0–5%. Source: IMF WEO Update, July 9, 2026, via Polity/Reuters. July assumed oil at $89 average and Hormuz reopening from mid-July; neither happened as assumed. This chart shows the July forecasts only; the October 2026 World Economic Outlook is not reflected in it.

Oil is well above the IMF's July assumption

Brent crude, US$ per barrel

Oct. 2025

65.58

IMF July avg.

Oct. 9, 2026

105.72

Scale $0–120. Year-ago and Oct. 9 (6:45 a.m. ET) prices: Fortune. Assumption: IMF July 2026 WEO Update, 2026 average.

Where AI hits hardest

Share of jobs exposed to AI, IMF estimate, %

Advanced

World

Low-income

Scale 0–100%. "Exposed" means augmented, downgraded or eliminated over time. Sources: Georgieva, Oct. 12, as reported by CNBC (global and advanced-economy figures); IMF staff note SDN/2024/001 (low-income figure).

Week ahead

Times ICT · from IMF schedule and The Nation

Mon 12

10:00Small AI: More and Better Jobs (Banga)
16:30Thailand Pavilion opens

Tue 13

09:00World Economic Outlook: "Resilience under Strain, Urgent Choices"
10:15Global Financial Stability Report
13:30Thai Finance Ministry flagship: Building Resilience in a Fragmented World

Wed 14

09:00Fiscal Monitor: "Taxing Better to Boost Growth"
10:00Georgieva press conference
12:30Bangkok Blueprint launch

Thu 15

09:00Asia-Pacific regional economic briefing
—G20 finance ministers & central bank governors
—Development Committee
15:30Debate on the Global Economy

Fri 16

09:00Annual Meetings Plenary
10:30Georgieva–Warsh fireside chat
11:15AI and the Global Economy

Sat 17 – Sun 18

Sat 12:30IMFC press briefing
SatPer Jacobsson Foundation Lecture
Sun 09:002029 Annual Meetings signing ceremony

Sources

Other counts reported: more than 15,000 and more than 16,000. ↩