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US recession gauge · data via FRED

Men's Underwear Index

The theory

The theory is simple. Men treat underwear as something they can put off replacing, so when household budgets are under strain, that is one of the first purchases to be postponed. If sales sag, the argument goes, consumers are tightening their belts.

Popular accounts credit former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan with the idea, and usually tell it as a half-joke: a deliberately quirky gauge of the economy that he reportedly kept half an eye on.

That attribution relies on press accounts. We have not found it in his own writings, so we cannot verify that he said it or in what spirit. What we can say is that no official series tracks men’s underwear sales alone, so this page tests the idea against the closest official proxies instead.

In short: a fun story, not a tested forecasting tool, and definitely not investment advice, high-priced or not.

Data through Sep 2026. Last refreshed 5 Nov 2026 from FRED, updated automatically.

+0.9%Core gauge, Sep 2026YoY, 3-month smoothed
+5.5%Annual men’s clothing, real, 2025Real growth on 2024
17Years below 1%, 1960–2025of 66 years
+7.8%Underwear producer prices, May 2026YoY

Core gauge · real clothing sales

Monthly US clothing-store sales divided by the CPI for apparel, smoothed over 3 months, shown as year-on-year change. Below zero means real spending is shrinking. Grey bands are NBER recessions.

-40-2002040601995200020052010201520202025

The vertical axis is clipped: the 2020–21 pandemic swings run off the chart.

Long view · men’s clothing, 1960–2025

Annual BEA consumer spending on men’s and boys’ clothing, divided by the CPI for men’s and boys’ apparel. Bars in recession years are shaded. A red bar is a year where real growth fell below the 1% threshold.

-12-60612182430196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015202020251960: +0.2% — Below threshold1961: +1.2%1962: +3.2%1963: +1.0% — Below threshold1964: +8.3%1965: +5.0%1966: +7.4%1967: +3.3%1968: +3.7%1969: +1.2%1970: −1.6% — Below threshold1971: +4.6%1972: +9.3%1973: +7.4%1974: −1.6% — Below threshold1975: +3.7%1976: +4.4%1977: +6.2%1978: +7.8%1979: +3.6%1980: +0.9% — Below threshold1981: +3.0%1982: −0.7% — Below threshold1983: +4.6%1984: +6.4%1985: +2.7%1986: +4.6%1987: +4.1%1988: +3.6%1989: +4.2%1990: +0.3% — Below threshold1991: +0.3% — Below threshold1992: +4.2%1993: +4.0%1994: +7.0%1995: +3.2%1996: +3.8%1997: +3.5%1998: +1.5%1999: +3.5%2000: +2.5%2001: 0.0% — Below threshold2002: +2.3%2003: +3.7%2004: +2.5%2005: +3.3%2006: +2.2%2007: 0.0% — Below threshold2008: −2.2% — Below threshold2009: −4.6% — Below threshold2010: +5.6%2011: +2.8%2012: +0.1% — Below threshold2013: +1.6%2014: +5.6%2015: +4.7%2016: +3.9%2017: +4.5%2018: +0.7% — Below threshold2019: +0.7% — Below threshold2020: −10.7% — Below threshold2021: +27.4%2022: +1.1%2023: +0.6% — Below threshold2024: +1.8%2025: +5.5%

Below threshold Above threshold US recession · 1% threshold. The vertical axis is clipped: the 2020–21 pandemic swings run off the chart.

Men’s stores only

Real sales at men’s clothing stores, 1993–2021, 3-month YoY. Census stopped publishing this series in 2021. It is the most male-specific monthly data available, and the noisiest.

-40-200204060199520002005201020152020

The vertical axis is clipped: the 2020–21 pandemic swings run off the chart.

Underwear price check

Producer prices for men’s and boys’ underwear, nightwear and robes, YoY. Prices are not volumes. This panel shows whether a sales move reflects price or quantity.

-2024681020052010201520202025

Back-test scorecard

When did each measure first turn negative, measured from the business-cycle peak? A negative number is a lead, a positive number a lag. Since 1993, the monthly gauges have covered 3 recessions. That is too few to judge them statistically.

Core gauge and men’s stores gauge before each U.S. recession
Recession (NBER peak)Core gauge (months)Men’s stores (months)Annual men’s clothing (years below 1%)
Apr 1960No dataNo data1960 (+0.2%)
Dec 1969No dataNo data1970 (−1.6%)
Nov 1973No dataNo data1974 (−1.6%)
Jan 1980No dataNo data1980 (+0.9%)
Jul 1981No dataNo data1980 (+0.9%), 1982 (−0.7%)
Jul 1990No dataNo data1990 (+0.3%), 1991 (+0.3%)
Mar 2001+7 months after peak12 or more months earlier2001 (0.0%)
Dec 2007+9 months after peak4 months before peak2007 (0.0%), 2008 (−2.2%)
Feb 202012 or more months earlier12 or more months earlier2019 (+0.7%), 2020 (−10.7%)

How it’s built

What the data shows

  • On the annual series, real men’s clothing spending grew less than 1% in, or right next to, every US recession year since 1960. It also fell below 1% in four years with no recession nearby (1963, 2012, 2018, 2023).
  • The monthly core gauge led the Feb 2020 peak (already negative a year or more before it), but lagged the Mar 2001 peak (7 months after it) and the Dec 2007 peak (9 months after it). It also stayed negative for three months or more with no recession nearby in two periods (1997, 2022–2024).
  • Men’s-store sales (to Apr 2021) led the Mar 2001 peak (already negative a year or more before it), the Dec 2007 peak (four months before it) and the Feb 2020 peak (already negative a year or more before it). It also stayed negative for three months or more with no recession nearby in five periods (Mar 1993–Jan 1994, Jan 1995–Feb 1996, 2012, 2016 and others).

Limits

  • All three are clothing proxies, not underwear sales. Store data includes women’s and children’s goods, and online sales outside clothing stores are missed.
  • The 1% threshold was chosen after looking at the data. It is an in-sample fit, not a tested forecast rule.
  • The annual series uses a CPI deflator on BEA nominal spending, not BEA’s own real series. The CPI has no Oct 2025 reading, so the 2025 average uses 11 months.
  • The latest months are advance estimates and get revised.

Sources (FRED series IDs)

  • RSCCAS: Census advance retail sales, clothing stores
  • CPIAPPSL, CUSR0000SAA1: BLS CPI, apparel; men’s and boys’ apparel
  • MRTSSM44811USS: Census retail sales, men’s clothing stores
  • DMBCRC1A027NBEA: BEA PCE, men’s and boys’ clothing
  • WPU03810761: BLS PPI, men’s and boys’ underwear and nightwear
  • USREC: NBER recession indicator

Built from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED data, last refreshed 5 Nov 2026 by an automated job; figures can change when agencies revise them. The underwear-index attribution to Greenspan comes from press accounts. We have not found it in his own writings. Not investment advice.

This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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