Icarus Asia Research
Research and commentary by Icarus Asia Research, published on Asian Value Investor.
News · Rates & FX · Japan · 6 Jul 2026
The dollar bought 162.5 yen in early July, within a fraction of a four-decade high hit on July 1. That the yen is this weak is not, by itself, surprising after three years of a strong dollar. What is surprising is that…
Deep Dive · Banks · China · 3 Jul 2026
PBOC monetary survey data puts Chinese banks' net foreign assets near $1.5 trillion. BoP-consistent SAFE data says $624 billion. The whole gap sits on the liability side, where $1.49 trillion of gross external obligations still needs watching.
News · Ideas · US · 3 Jul 2026
Andrew Mellon cut taxes, raised tariffs, and restructured sovereign debt. His grandson just spent half a billion dollars electing an administration doing the same thing.
News · Banks · China · 3 Jul 2026
China's banks hold either $1.5 trillion or $624 billion in net foreign assets, depending on which branch of the Chinese government is doing the counting. The difference is not a rounding error.
Deep Dive · Rates & FX · Japan · 30 Jun 2026
The yen carry trade has rebuilt to a nine-year speculative short. Japan spent $74 billion between April and May trying to stop it. The yen is still at 161.
News · Credit · Global · 30 Jun 2026
In the first quarter of this year, the average withdrawal request across the 12 largest funds was 12.1% of total invested money. They are only allowed to release 5%. Seven of the twelve hit that limit, spread the withdrawals proportionally across everyone who asked, and ended up paying out just 53 cents on every dollar requested.
News · Rates & FX · Japan · 30 Jun 2026
With speculative shorts at a nine-year extreme and the currency at its weakest since 1986, Tokyo's reserves are depleting faster than the carry trade is breaking.
Deep Dive · Credit · Global · 29 Jun 2026
Funding-structure risk, redemption pressure, and the bifurcation of BDC platforms as the zero-rate expansion unwinds
News · Markets · Global · 29 Jun 2026
The Bank for International Settlements has done what few institutions will -- named the AI investment surge as a potential systemic threat, compared it to the canal mania of the 1830s, and explained, precisely, why a bust this time wouldn't stay contained beyond Silicon Valley.
Deep Dive · Credit · US · 23 Jun 2026
Goldman Sachs is building total return swaps on AI-exposed corporate loans. The product isn't ready. The demand is. Here's what the structure does, what it doesn't do, and what happens when it goes live at scale.
News · Policy · Global · 23 Jun 2026
In 1849, a merchant named Sam Brannan ran through the streets of San Francisco clutching a vial of gold dust and shouting that fortunes were waiting in the hills to the northeast.
Deep Dive · Rates & FX · Global · 19 Jun 2026
Rising yields across the U.S., Europe, and Japan are no longer a cyclical footnote — they reflect a structural repricing of sovereign supply, term premium, and central-bank retreat that changes the rules for every major asset class.
News · Rates & FX · US · 19 Jun 2026
The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.198% in May. The Federal Reserve hasn't raised rates since 2023. Inflation is lower than it was two years ago. If your mental model still insists the long end dutifully follows the short…
News · Policy · China · 18 Jun 2026
Beijing made a quiet decision to stop fighting its own currency. The bill is coming due for the exporters who weren't paying attention.
Deep Dive · Rates & FX · China · 17 Jun 2026
Structural forces behind the renminbi's controlled appreciation — China's $1.189 trillion surplus anchor, regime-sensitive volatility, and the corporate hedging reckoning now forcing a decade of complacency into reverse.
